Probability matching has long been taken as a prime example of irrational behaviour in human decision making; however, its nature and uniqueness in the animal world is still much debated. In this ...

Events with very low a-priori probability but very high impact shape our lives to a significant degree, on an individual as well as a global level. Unfortunately, people have difficulties ...

Perhaps but it would take a bit of work to frame this problem in that model. A more direct analogy is to a generalized one-dimensional random walk: if you start at 0 and each second, move left one ...